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Why Lower Prices Haven’t Brought GTA Buyers Back in 2026
Home prices are down. Mortgage rates have eased. Affordability is better than it’s been in a long time. So where are the buyers?
If you’ve been watching the Greater Toronto Area real estate market, you might be wondering the same thing. With lower prices and less competition, this should be a buyer’s dream. But that’s not what’s happening. Instead, homes are sitting longer, sales are dropping, and the gap between buyers and sellers is still wide.
Let’s break down why affordability alone isn’t bringing buyers back—and what’s really going on in today’s market.
The GTA Market Has Hit the Reset Button
According to the latest data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), home sales in 2025 fell by over 11%. At the same time, listings rose more than 10%. That means more properties came on the market, but fewer were sold. As a result, inventory grew—not because sellers are rushing to offload homes, but because buyers are stepping back.
This is important. In a typical downturn, you’d expect panic selling or a surge in listings. But in this case, most homes are just sitting because demand has softened. Buyers are waiting. Sellers are holding their ground. And the result is a market that feels stuck.
Affordability Has Improved, But Confidence Hasn’t
Yes, affordability on paper has improved. Prices have dropped roughly 5% from last year, and mortgage rates are down from their peak in 2023. But buyers aren’t just looking at charts—they’re thinking about job security, inflation, and long-term risk.
Unemployment in Toronto has ticked up. Grocery bills, gas, and daily costs are still high. Even if mortgage rates are better, buyers need to feel confident in their financial future to commit to a 25- or 30-year loan. That confidence isn’t there yet.
TRREB has acknowledged this. Households won’t start buying again just because prices drop. They need to feel secure in their income, their jobs, and the economy. Until then, many will keep waiting.
This Is No Longer a Bidding War Market
Remember when homes would get 10 offers in one day? That’s gone. Today’s buyers aren’t in a rush, and most properties in the GTA are selling below asking price. The average sale-to-list ratio has dropped into the mid-90% range. That means pricing matters again.
Buyers are negotiating. Sellers who are still expecting 2022 prices are finding out quickly that those days are over. If a home is overpriced, it will sit, get reduced, or be pulled from the market altogether.
In short: urgency is out. Strategy and patience are in.
Sellers Are Still Anchored to the Past
One of the biggest disconnects right now is between what sellers want and what buyers are willing to pay. Many homeowners still expect their home to sell for what their neighbor got during the peak. But buyers are looking at current rates, job uncertainty, and affordability—not past comparables.
So what happens? Homes get listed too high. They sit. They get reduced. Or they just don’t sell. This back-and-forth slows the market down even more and adds to the feeling that things aren’t moving.
The Market Is Running on Confidence, Not Just Numbers
The truth is, real estate is emotional. It’s about more than interest rates and average prices. People buy homes when they feel secure—when they believe in their future.
Right now, that belief is shaky. StatsCan data shows that employment growth slowed in late 2025. Inflation has cooled, but people still feel financially stretched. And while mortgage rates have improved, they’re still high compared to the pre-pandemic years.
People are cautious. They’re not ready to take on big commitments unless they truly feel it’s the right time.
What This Means for Buyers
If you’re a buyer right now, this is your chance to move smart. The playing field has changed. You’re not battling 10 offers. You’re not being forced to waive inspections or offer tens of thousands over asking. You have time. You have options. And most importantly, you have negotiating power.
But don’t confuse opportunity with ease. The best deals still come to those who do the work—understanding the market, knowing what a fair price looks like, and working with the right agent who understands how buyers and sellers are thinking right now.
What This Means for Sellers
If you’re trying to sell in this market, realism matters more than ever. Homes that are priced right, marketed well, and properly staged are still selling—but not in one day.
Overpricing will backfire. Today’s buyers are cautious, and they’re watching every dollar. If your listing sits too long, buyers will wonder why. They’ll assume something’s wrong. That’s why working with a real estate professional who understands negotiation and pricing strategy is key.
Looking Ahead: 2026 and Beyond
Don’t mistake this slowdown for a crash. Most homeowners still have equity. There’s no flood of foreclosures. What we’re seeing is a structural reset—a shift from emotional buying to calculated decision-making.
The market will move again, but not in the same way it did in 2021 or 2022. This next phase will be defined by confidence, not chaos. Patience, not panic. And strategy, not speculation.
Final Thought
The GTA real estate market isn’t broken. It’s just different now. Lower prices and better rates haven’t brought buyers back because this isn’t about numbers anymore—it’s about mindset.
If you’re serious about buying or selling in 2026, focus on what really drives results: realistic pricing, strong strategy, and clear communication. The ones who adapt will win. The rest will wait.
👉 Giovanna Cavarra
